The species were chosen due to their known or suspected role in avian influenza transmission. The BirdFlow models were fit using average hyperparameters from a suite of models tuned to tracking data, but are not themselves tuned with tracking data.

The models rely on eBird Status and Trends (S&T) weekly distributions. They can be used with the BirdFlowR R Package to

The species presented here are a union of:

Species were dropped if their BirdFlow models were deemed problematic in a somewhat subjective assessment of synthetic routes and migration traffic generated from the models; and the species distributions the models were trained on.

41 species were dropped in all. 3, 14, and 29 species were dropped from each list, respectively; there was overlap among the lists.

eBird S&T code links to eBird information on the species.
Model links to a report on the model.

Models

Common name Model Release date Scientific name eBird S&T code Version Size (MB)
American Black Duck ambduc 2024-10-02 Anas rubripes ambduc beta 32.60
American Wigeon amewig 2024-10-02 Mareca americana amewig beta 347.19
American White Pelican amwpel 2025-03-25 Pelecanus erythrorhynchos amwpel beta 181.36
Bald Eagle baleag 2024-10-02 Haliaeetus leucocephalus baleag beta 677.17
Broad-winged Hawk brwhaw 2025-03-25 Buteo platypterus brwhaw beta 84.87
Bufflehead buffle 2025-03-25 Bucephala albeola buffle beta 305.58
Blue-winged Teal buwtea 2024-10-02 Spatula discors buwtea beta 329.32
California Gull calgul 2025-03-25 Larus californicus calgul beta 68.28
Canada Goose cangoo 2024-10-02 Branta canadensis cangoo beta 588.15
Canvasback canvas 2025-03-25 Aythya valisineria canvas beta 95.46
Clark’s Grebe clagre 2025-03-25 Aechmophorus clarkii clagre beta 20.94
Common Goldeneye comgol 2025-03-25 Bucephala clangula comgol beta 321.83
Common Loon comloo 2025-03-25 Gavia immer comloo beta 542.99
Cooper’s Hawk coohaw 2024-10-02 Accipiter cooperii coohaw beta 310.89
Double-crested Cormorant doccor 2025-03-25 Nannopterum auritum doccor beta 516.17
Eared Grebe eargre 2025-03-25 Podiceps nigricollis eargre beta 88.08
Ferruginous Hawk ferhaw 2025-03-25 Buteo regalis ferhaw beta 32.61
Gadwall gadwal 2024-10-02 Mareca strepera gadwal beta 218.46
Great Black-backed Gull gbbgul 2024-10-02 Larus marinus gbbgul beta 50.87
Green-winged Teal gnwtea 2024-10-02 Anas crecca gnwtea beta 507.01
Golden Eagle goleag 2025-03-25 Aquila chrysaetos goleag beta 190.35
Great Blue Heron grbher3 2025-03-25 Ardea herodias grbher3 beta 657.11
Greater Scaup gresca 2025-03-25 Aythya marila gresca beta 157.61
Greater White-fronted Goose gwfgoo 2025-03-25 Anser albifrons gwfgoo beta 86.83
Herring Gull hergul 2024-10-02 Larus argentatus hergul beta 560.34
Hooded Merganser hoomer 2024-10-02 Lophodytes cucullatus hoomer beta 175.65
Horned Grebe horgre 2025-03-25 Podiceps auritus horgre beta 146.99
Lesser Black-backed Gull lbbgul 2024-10-02 Larus fuscus lbbgul beta 30.50
Lesser Scaup lessca 2024-10-02 Aythya affinis lessca beta 279.92
Long-tailed Duck lotduc 2025-03-25 Clangula hyemalis lotduc beta 384.60
Mallard mallar3 2024-10-02 Anas platyrhynchos mallar3 beta 641.73
Northern Harrier norhar2 2025-03-25 Circus hudsonius norhar2 beta 482.10
Northern Pintail norpin 2024-10-02 Anas acuta norpin beta 467.65
Northern Shoveler norsho 2024-10-02 Spatula clypeata norsho beta 463.07
Peregrine Falcon perfal 2024-10-02 Falco peregrinus perfal beta 1070.11
Pied-billed Grebe pibgre 2025-03-25 Podilymbus podiceps pibgre beta 796.10
Red-breasted Merganser rebmer 2025-03-25 Mergus serrator rebmer beta 330.32
Redhead redhea 2025-03-25 Aythya americana redhea beta 133.64
Ring-billed Gull ribgul 2025-03-25 Larus delawarensis ribgul beta 379.21
Ring-necked Duck rinduc 2025-03-25 Aythya collaris rinduc beta 302.49
Rough-legged Hawk rolhaw 2025-03-25 Buteo lagopus rolhaw beta 147.10
Ruddy Duck rudduc 2025-03-25 Oxyura jamaicensis rudduc beta 186.25
Sandhill Crane sancra 2025-03-25 Antigone canadensis sancra beta 250.38
Sharp-shinned Hawk shshaw 2025-03-25 Accipiter striatus shshaw beta 663.82
Snow Goose snogoo 2024-10-02 Anser caerulescens snogoo beta 124.98
Swainson’s Hawk swahaw 2025-03-25 Buteo swainsoni swahaw beta 67.75
Tundra Swan tunswa 2025-03-25 Cygnus columbianus tunswa beta 98.47
Wood Duck wooduc 2024-10-02 Aix sponsa wooduc beta 152.99
American Coot y00475 2025-03-25 Fulica americana y00475 beta 372.07
Zone-tailed Hawk zothaw 2025-03-25 Buteo albonotatus zothaw beta 173.53

Usage

if (!require("remotes"))
  install.packages("remotes")
if (!require("BirdFlowR"))
  remotes::install_github("birdflow-science/BirdFlowR")

library(BirdFlowR)

# Set collection_url (only necessary if this isn't the default collection)
birdflow_options(collection_url = "https://birdflow-science.s3.amazonaws.com/avian_flu/")

# Print index
index <- load_collection_index()
print(index)

# Select a model
model <- "ambduc"

# Load and use the model
bf <- load_model(model)
rts <- route(bf, 5, season = "prebreeding")
plot(rts)

Learn more

BirdFlow is a joint project between the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. It is funded by the US National Science Foundation

License

Bird Flow Models by BirdFlowScience are licensed under CC BY 4.0

Disclaimer

This material uses data from the eBird Status and Trends Project at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, eBird.org. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.

Last updated: 2025-03-26