The models here are trained on eBird Status and Trends 2023 version year weekly abundance.

Tracked movements of real birds were used to tune each species model separately and identify top models using three performance metrics: distance gained, log likelihood, and multi objective. We thank the USGS bird banding lab for the bird banding data collection, Birds Canada for preparing and sharing the data of the Motus Wildlife Tracking System, and the many individual contributors to these projects for collecting and compiling data on bird movement.

Log likelihood picks the model that maximizes the probability of the observed resighting location of each bird movement given its start location and time, averaged across all observed movements.

Distance gained focuses on geographic distance, and selects the model whose predicted distribution is geographically closer to the observed resighting locations, averaged across all observed movements.

Multi objective Multi-objective optimization selects the best model by jointly considering both log likelihood and distance gain, rather than optimizing either metric alone.

Each of the 254 species for which we obtained the movement data to calculate the metrics was evaluated by a minimum of two people. They inspected the eBird weekly abundance; migratory traffic and synthetic routes produced the models; and a suite of performance metrics, and then rated the model quality from 1 (low) to 5 (high) and selected the best model for each species from the three top models.

The 60 models for which all raters assigned a 4 or 5 are included in this release.

The models rely on eBird Status and Trends (S&T) weekly distributions. They can be used with the BirdFlowR R Package to

eBird S&T code links to eBird information on the species.
Model links to a report on the model.

Models

Common name Model Release date Scientific name eBird S&T code Version Size (MB)
Acadian Flycatcher acafly_best_mo 2026-04-15 Empidonax virescens acafly beta 14.71
American Woodcock amewoo_best_dg 2026-04-15 Scolopax minor amewoo beta 21.38
Bay-breasted Warbler babwar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Setophaga castanea babwar beta 17.14
Baltimore Oriole balori_best_mo 2026-04-15 Icterus galbula balori beta 43.92
Blackburnian Warbler bkbwar_best_ll 2026-04-15 Setophaga fusca bkbwar beta 26.27
Brewer’s Blackbird brebla_best_dg 2026-04-15 Euphagus cyanocephalus brebla beta 80.14
Brewer’s Sparrow brespa_best_dg 2026-04-15 Spizella breweri brespa beta 18.54
Brown Thrasher brnthr_best_mo 2026-04-15 Toxostoma rufum brnthr beta 59.08
Broad-tailed Hummingbird brthum_best_dg 2026-04-15 Selasphorus platycercus brthum beta 7.31
Broad-winged Hawk brwhaw_best_mo 2026-04-15 Buteo platypterus brwhaw beta 73.49
Black-throated Blue Warbler btbwar_best_dg 2026-04-15 Setophaga caerulescens btbwar beta 10.96
Black-throated Green Warbler btnwar_best_dg 2026-04-15 Setophaga virens btnwar beta 38.84
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher buggna_best_ll 2026-04-15 Polioptila caerulea buggna beta 142.11
Blue-headed Vireo buhvir_best_mo 2026-04-15 Vireo solitarius buhvir beta 45.78
Bullock’s Oriole bulori_best_dg 2026-04-15 Icterus bullockii bulori beta 21.55
Blue-winged Warbler buwwar_best_dg 2026-04-15 Vermivora cyanoptera buwwar beta 8.63
Calliope Hummingbird calhum_best_dg 2026-04-15 Selasphorus calliope calhum beta 5.00
Cape May Warbler camwar_best_dg 2026-04-15 Setophaga tigrina camwar beta 19.36
Canada Warbler canwar_best_dg 2026-04-15 Cardellina canadensis canwar beta 17.79
Cassin’s Vireo casvir_best_mo 2026-04-15 Vireo cassinii casvir beta 16.19
Cerulean Warbler cerwar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Setophaga cerulea cerwar beta 4.34
Chestnut-collared Longspur chclon_best_dg 2026-04-15 Calcarius ornatus chclon beta 4.02
Chestnut-sided Warbler chswar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Setophaga pensylvanica chswar beta 21.31
Clay-colored Sparrow clcspa_best_mo 2026-04-15 Spizella pallida clcspa beta 40.65
Dusky Flycatcher dusfly_best_ll 2026-04-15 Empidonax oberholseri dusfly beta 18.05
Eastern Kingbird easkin_best_mo 2026-04-15 Tyrannus tyrannus easkin beta 87.59
Golden-crowned Sparrow gocspa_best_mo 2026-04-15 Zonotrichia atricapilla gocspa beta 16.20
Golden-winged Warbler gowwar_best_ll 2026-04-15 Vermivora chrysoptera gowwar beta 4.48
Grasshopper Sparrow graspa_best_mo 2026-04-15 Ammodramus savannarum graspa beta 48.61
Gray Catbird grycat_best_ll 2026-04-15 Dumetella carolinensis grycat beta 104.59
Hooded Warbler hoowar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Setophaga citrina hoowar beta 16.66
Indigo Bunting indbun_best_mo 2026-04-15 Passerina cyanea indbun beta 59.53
Kentucky Warbler kenwar_best_ll 2026-04-15 Geothlypis formosa kenwar beta 9.88
Lazuli Bunting lazbun_best_mo 2026-04-15 Passerina amoena lazbun beta 18.82
Least Flycatcher leafly_best_dg 2026-04-15 Empidonax minimus leafly beta 75.15
Louisiana Waterthrush louwat_best_ll 2026-04-15 Parkesia motacilla louwat beta 33.06
MacGillivray’s Warbler macwar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Geothlypis tolmiei macwar beta 24.92
Magnolia Warbler magwar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Setophaga magnolia magwar beta 39.75
Northern Parula norpar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Setophaga americana norpar beta 47.03
Orchard Oriole orcori_best_ll 2026-04-15 Icterus spurius orcori beta 48.66
Pine Warbler pinwar_best_ll 2026-04-15 Setophaga pinus pinwar beta 34.31
Prairie Warbler prawar_best_ll 2026-04-15 Setophaga discolor prawar beta 16.19
Prothonotary Warbler prowar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Protonotaria citrea prowar beta 17.79
Rose-breasted Grosbeak robgro_best_mo 2026-04-15 Pheucticus ludovicianus robgro beta 39.49
Ruby-throated Hummingbird rthhum_best_mo 2026-04-15 Archilochus colubris rthhum beta 44.13
Rufous Hummingbird rufhum_best_ll 2026-04-15 Selasphorus rufus rufhum beta 13.75
Saltmarsh Sparrow sstspa_best_ll 2026-04-15 Ammospiza caudacuta sstspa beta 0.34
Summer Tanager sumtan_best_mo 2026-04-15 Piranga rubra sumtan beta 62.47
Swamp Sparrow swaspa_best_ll 2026-04-15 Melospiza georgiana swaspa beta 85.63
Swainson’s Warbler swawar_best_ll 2026-04-15 Limnothlypis swainsonii swawar beta 2.62
Tennessee Warbler tenwar_best_mo 2026-04-15 Leiothlypis peregrina tenwar beta 55.68
Vesper Sparrow vesspa_best_ll 2026-04-15 Pooecetes gramineus vesspa beta 87.46
Virginia’s Warbler virwar_best_dg 2026-04-15 Leiothlypis virginiae virwar beta 3.50
Western Meadowlark wesmea_best_ll 2026-04-15 Sturnella neglecta wesmea beta 86.43
Western Tanager westan_best_dg 2026-04-15 Piranga ludoviciana westan beta 38.65
White-throated Sparrow whtspa_best_mo 2026-04-15 Zonotrichia albicollis whtspa beta 124.05
Willow Flycatcher wilfly_best_ll 2026-04-15 Empidonax traillii wilfly beta 46.21
Winter Wren winwre3_best_dg 2026-04-15 Troglodytes hiemalis winwre3 beta 45.43
Wood Thrush woothr_best_dg 2026-04-15 Hylocichla mustelina woothr beta 21.06
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker yebsap_best_mo 2026-04-15 Sphyrapicus varius yebsap beta 82.35

Usage

if (!require("remotes"))
  install.packages("remotes")
if (!require("BirdFlowR"))
  remotes::install_github("birdflow-science/BirdFlowR")

library(BirdFlowR)

# Set collection_url (only necessary if this isn't the default collection)
birdflow_options(collection_url = "https://birdflow-science.s3.amazonaws.com/2026")

# Print index
index <- load_collection_index()
print(index)

# Select a model
model <- "acafly_best_mo"

# Load and use the model
bf <- load_model(model)
rts <- route(bf, 5, season = "prebreeding")
plot(rts)

Learn more

BirdFlow is a joint project between the University of Massachusetts Amherst and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. It is funded by the US National Science Foundation

License

Bird Flow Models by BirdFlowScience are licensed under CC BY 4.0

Disclaimer

This material uses data from the eBird Status and Trends Project at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, eBird.org. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.

Last updated: 2026-04-22